PPR Cheat Sheet 3.0

I’ve had one draft and done plenty of research in the last week, enough that some players have made significant moves on my cheat sheet. The notables: DeSean Jackson went from nowhere to No. 55 among receivers with Kevin Curtis hurt. Ahman Green and Willis McGahee both dropped considerably, while I finally (it took too long, really) moved Jamal Lewis and Thomas Jones up to where they should be. Same for DeAngelo Williams. 

There are many more changes as well. I’ll be taking this cheat sheet to a pair of drafts this weekend of the PPR variety, so I’ll be able to look back on this in five months and see how smart/stupid I exactly am. Feel free to do the same

Oh, and I tried copy/paste from below into Microsoft Excel and it worked, so if you want to use this that might be an easier format to deal with it in.

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVERS	TEAM	QUARTERBACKS	TEAM	TIGHT ENDS	TEAM
Randy Moss	Patriots	Tom Brady	Patriots	Jason Witten	Cowboys
Reggie Wayne	Colts	Peyton Manning	Colts	Antonio Gates	Chargers
Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	Tony Romo	Cowboys	Kellen Winslow	Browns
Terrell Owens	Cowboys	Drew Brees	Saints	Tony Gonzalez	Chiefs
Braylon Edwards	Browns	Carson Palmer	Bengals	Chris Cooley	Redskins
Andre Johnson	Texans	Derek Anderson	Browns	Jeremy Shockey	Saints
Marques Colston	Saints	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	Dallas Clark	Colts
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Bengals	Philip Rivers	Saints	Tony Scheffler	Broncos
Roy Williams	Lions	Matt Hasselbeck	Seahawks	Donald Lee	Packers
Torry Holt	Rams	Jay Cutler	Broncos	Zach Miller	Raiders
Steve Smith	Panthers	Matt Schuab	Texans	Heath Miller	Steelers
Brandon Marshall	Broncos	Matt Lienart	Cardinals	Owen Daniels	Texans
Plaxico Burress	Giants	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	Vernon Davis	49ers
Santonio Holmes	Steelers	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	Greg Olsen	Bears
Wes Welker	Patriots	Jake Delhomme	Panthers	L.J. Smith	Eagles
Calvin Johnson	Lions	Brett Favre	Jets	Todd Heap	Ravens
Chad Johnson	Bengals	Marc Bulger	Rams	Alge Crumpler	Titans
Anquan Boldin	Cardinals	David Garrard	Jaguars	Ben Watson	Patriots
Greg Jennings	Packers	Eli Manning	Giants	Marcedes Lewis	Jaguars
Lee Evans	Bills	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	Ben Utecht	Bengals
Marvin Harrison	Colts	Vince Young	Titans	Desmond Clark	Bears
Hines Ward	Steelers	Jason Campbell	Redskins	Bubba Franks	Jets
Donald Driver	Packers	Matt Ryan	Falcons	David Martin	Dolphins
Chris Chambers	Chargers	Jon Kitna	Lions	Randy McMichael	Rams
Roddy White	Falcons	Jeff Garcia	Bucs	Leonard Pope	Cardinals
Laveranues Coles	Jets	Chad Pennington	Dolphins	John Carlson	Seahawks
Vincent Jackson	Chargers	Kurt Warner	Cardinals	Daniel Graham	Broncos
Dwayne Bowe	Chiefs	Tavaris Jackson	Vikings	Jeff King	Panthers
Kevin Curtis	Eagles	Brodie Croyle	Chiefs	Visanthe Shiancoe	Vikings
Joey Galloway	Bucs	Kyle Orton	Bears	RUNNING BACKS	TEAM
Jerricho Cotchery	Jets	Troy Smith	Ravens	LaDainian Tomlinson	Chargers
Reggie Brown	Eagles	Alex Smith	49ers	Adrian Peterson	Vikings
Bernard Berrian	Vikings	Chris Redman	Falcons	Brian Westbrook	Eagles
Nate Burleson	Seahawks	Gus Frerrote	Vikings	Steven Jackson	Rams
Anthony Gonzalez	Colts	Joe Flacco	Ravens	Joseph Addai	Colts
Bobby Engram	Seahawks	Chad Henne	Dolphins	Marion Barber	Cowboys
Patrick Crayton	Cowboys	Shaun Hill	49ers	Reggie Bush	Saints
Eddie Royal	Broncos	Rex Grossman	Bears	Marshawn Lynch	Bills
Robert Meachem	Saints	DEFENSE		Frank Gore	49ers
Donte Stallworth	Browns	Bears		Clinton Portis	Redskins
Tedd Ginn Jr.	Dolphins	Vikings		Larry Johnson	Chiefs
D.J. Hackett	Panthers	Chargers		Ryan Grant	Packers
Derrick Mason	Ravens	Giants		Jamal Lewis	Browns
Devin Hester	Bears	Patriots		Brandon Jacobs	Giants
Deion Branch	Seahawks	Ravens		Maurice Jones-Drew	Jaguars
Jabar Gaffney	Patriots	Jaguars		Michael Turner	Falcons
Javon Walker	Raiders	Packers		Darren McFadden	Raiders
Jerry Porter	Jaguars	Cowboys		Thomas Jones	Jets
Santana Moss	Redskins	Steelers		Laurence Maroney	Patriots
Sidney Rice	Vikings	Raiders		DeAngelo Williams	Panthers
James Jones	Packers	Cardinals		Rudi Johnson	Bengals
James Hardy	Bills	Titans		LenDale White	Titans
Drew Bennett	Rams	Bucs		Ronnie Brown	Dolphins
Laurent Robinson	Falcons	Eagles		Edgerrin James	Cardinals
DeSean Jackson	Eagles	Colts		Willie Parker	Steelers
Malcolm Kelly	Redskins	Seahawks		Jonathan Stewart	Panthers
Limas Sweed	Steelers	Broncos		Fred Taylor	Jaguars
Ronald Curry	Raiders	Bills		Rashard Mendenhall	Steelers
Isaac Bruce	49ers	Texans		Kevin Smith	Lions
Derek Hagan	Dolphins	Saints		Matt Forte	Bears
Devin Thomas	Redskins	Lions		Selvin Young	Broncos
Michael Clayton	Ravens	Browns		Willis McGahee	Ravens
Jordy Nelson	Packers	Jets		Ricky Williams	Dolphins
Dennis Northcutt	Jaguars	Chiefs		Chris Johnson	Titans
Marty Booker	Bears	Dolphins		Maurice Morris	Seahawks
Justin Gage	Titans	Redskins		Ray Rice	Ravens
Darrell Jackson	Broncos	Panthers		Pierre Thomas	Saints
Reggie Williams	Jaguars	Bengals		Steve Slaton	Texans
Arnaz Battle	49ers	Rams		Chester Taylor	Vikings
David Patten	Saints	49ers		Michael Bush	Raiders
Amani Toomer	Giants	Falcons		Timothy Hightower	Cardinals
Michael Jenkins	Falcons	KICKERS	TEAM	Brandon Jackson	Packers
Bryant Johnson	49ers	Stephen Gostkowski	Patriots	Earnest Graham	Bucs
Steve Smith	Giants	Nick Folk	Cowboys	Justin Fargas	Raiders
Shaun McDonald	Lions	Adam Vinatieri	Colts	Jason Wright	Browns
Kevin Walter	Texans	Josh Brown	Rams	Julius Jones	Seahawks
Muhsin Muhammad	Panthers	Shayne Graham	Bengals	Andre Hall	Broncos
Brandon Stokley	Broncos	Nate Kaeding	Chargers	LaMont Jordan	Patriots
Maurice Stovall	Bucs	Rob Bironas	Titans	Ahmad Bradshaw	Giants
Nate Washington	Steelers	Matt Stover	Ravens	LaDell Betts	Redskins
Craig Davis	Chargers	Kris Brown	Texans	Chris Perry	Bengals
Josh Reed	Bills	Mason Crosby	Packers	Jerious Norwood	Falcons
Courtney Taylor	Seahawks	Neil Rackers	Cardinals	Micahel Pittman	Broncos
Keary Colbert	Broncos	Robbie Gould	Bears	Chris Brown	Texans
Devard Darling	Chiefs	Jeff Reed	Steelers	Kevin Jones	Bears
Andre Davis	Texans	Lawrence Tynes	Giants	Felix Jones	Cowboys
Roydell Williams	Titans	Phil Dawson	Browns	Jesse Chatman	Jets
Donnie Avery	Rams	Jason Hanson	Lions	Deuce McAllister	Saints
Williams Franklin	Chiefs	Jose Scobee	Jaguars	Leon Washington	Jets
David Tyree	Giants	John Kasay	Panthers	Ahman Green	Texans
Demetrius Williams	Ravens	Shaun Suisham	Redskins	Adrian Peterson	Bears
Troy Williamson	Jaguars	David Akers	Ealges	Kolby Smith	Chiefs
Justin McCareins	Titans	Mike Nugent	Jets	Correll Buckhalter	Eagles
Joe Horn	FA	Matt Bryant	Bucs	Dominic Rhodes	Colts
Brandon Jones	Titans	Ryan Longwell	Vikings	Carnell Williams	Bucs
Drew Carter	Raiders	Olindo Mare	Seahawks	Tatum Bell	Lions
Devery Henderson	Saints	Jason Elam	Falcons	Sammy Morris	Patriots
Ruvell Martin	Packers	Sebastian Janikowski	Raiders	Jacob Hester	Chargers
Jacoby Jones	Texans	Matt Prater	Broncos	Kenny Watson	Bengals
Ernest Wilford	Dolphins	Taylor Mehlhaff	Saints	Lorenzo Booker	Eagles
Legedu Naanee	Chargers	Dan Carpenter	Dolphins	Fred Jackson	Bills
James Thrash	Redskins	Rian Lindell	Bills	Warrick Dunn	Bucs
Aundrae Allison	Vikings	Joe Nedney	49ers	T.J. Duckett	Seahawks

(Almost) Just in time

I’ve chronicled my fantasy basketball failings on this blog in the past, but with a couple news items this week I believe it is worth revisiting. First, Jermaine O’Neal returned to the Pacers’ lineup on Monday after missing 33 games thanks to his chronically injured knees. He came off the bench to add nine points, two rebounds, two assists and a block to Indy’s bottom line. Now the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Elton Brand will return to the Clippers lineup this week.

 

Too little, too late.

 

When Brand injured his Achilles tendon back in August, he would reportedly be out until at least the All-Star break. As fantasy draft season drew nigh, Brand was early in his rehab, but indications were he was on pace to have no setbacks. That left this 20-point, 10-rebound per night fantasy stud with an upside of a February return. I took the bait in a pair of leagues and paid for it dearly.

 

In the meantime, with Brand out, Ron Artest hurt and Gerald Wallace at the top of his game in January, I took the drastic move of trading Artest, Wallace and Al Harrington for Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal in order to stay afloat in the playoff race while waiting on Brand. But Artest came back a week early, O’Neal went down for the count a week later, and my season was flushed down the toilet a week or two after that. Selling high on Wallace turned out to be fortuitous, but not enough to make much of a difference.

 

I give myself somewhat of a pass on the O’Neal thing simply because I was making a desperation move to stay competitive – its not a significant keeper league, so it’s not like I’m stuck with him next year. But I should be scolded about Brand for not considering all the elements prior to drafting him.

 

If the Clippers were in the Eastern Conference it might have been a different story. But as it turns out, they are on the West Coast and in the hyper-competitive Western Conference. Although it was tough to predict things being this crazy, it doesn’t take a Hubie Brown hoops IQ to figure out that L.A.’s red-headed stepchild of an NBA franchise would not be in the hunt for a playoff position. And with the current setup of the NBA draft lottery, the Clippers would likely be a month away from employing the “tank” strategy even if Brand returned by the All-Star break. Then you must take into account that if Brand is rushed back, he won’t be playing full minutes right off the bat as he reacquaints himself with teammates and gets his legs back. So in all likelihood, a best-case scenario for Brand coming into this season was maybe 2-3 weeks of prime, Brand-like production – and this would not have come during the fantasy playoffs, which is what I was hoping for in order to make a championship run.

 

There are exceptions to the rule, as Pau Gasol showed last year by returning for Memphis and having a great season. But he was back before the calendar turned – a big difference from waiting until at least the All-Star break.

 

When it comes to drafting injured players as value picks, as I had hoped to do with Brand in the middle to late rounds of my drafts, looking at the whole picture is crucial. If we’re talking about a top player on a contending team, the risk may be worth the reward. But in an instance like Brand’s this season, I should have been smart enough to realize the cons far outweighed the pros in this instance.

 

I paid for my mistake, as I was forced to jettison both injured players as the fantasy playoffs began – or in my case, the consolation bracket with a chance at earning the first overall pick next season. I was blown out in the first round, and now get to watch the final week and a half as playoff teams grabbed both O’Neal and Brand off the waiver wire in hopes of using them to get over the hump. Not a bad move for them – at my expense.

It’s Draft Season!

Almost draft day!

I’ve got a fantasy baseball draft each of the next two Saturdays and couldn’t be more excited. It’s a fresh start after a year of bad fantasy play.

Last baseball season was pretty much a nightmare. In fact, that led to a poor showing in football and basketball as I tried to overcompensate with high-risk, high-reward players, thinking I was due for a change in luck. Turns out, just one of those players turning into a bust is generally enough to sabotage fantasy hopes in any sport.

So I finally tidied up my cheat sheet yesterday and think I’m good to go. I’d divulge my sleepers, but unfortunately some of you reading this are also in my fantasy leagues. If I was getting paid for this, then I’d have no choice but to hand out such useful information. But thanks to the high quality people running a website that shall remain nameless, I am getting my paychecks elsewhere. But I will give you one piece of advice: if Hanley Ramirez is available, don’t select Derrek Lee. Had I not been a complete idiot in one of my drafts last year, not only might I have been a championship contender, I’d also be keeping Ramirez, Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera heading into my first draft. I really should get over that…

The best advice I can give heading into a draft is to know two things. First, know your depth charts. Fantasy magazines were printed back in January, so those are not helpful when it comes to this. Team websites are hit or miss, but I have found ESPN’s to be in pretty good shape. I hate linking to a site that everyone goes to anyway, but unfortunately in this case it’s the best. Secondly, stay abreast of injuries. Once again, the magazines you’ll pick up en route to your draft are no good for this. I find Rotowire to be a good source of this information and apparently ESPN does as well, because they wrap it up in a neat little package for you sans the fantasy spin. But really, the injury is the most important piece of information.

Oh, I just thought of one more thing – since lately I can do no right in fantasy drafts and my plan is to stick with safer, more consistent options this season, you can fully expect Randy Johnson and Mike Hampton to actually be healthy this season and supply great fantasy numbers with a late-round pick. Oh, and how could I forget Rich Harden! Chalk him up for a Cy Young. Those are the three I’ll be most tempted on, but I’m forcing myself to resist. So enjoy their stellar seasons!

Yao-uch!!!

I have quite a bit of respect for Yao Ming. The guy is a tremendous athlete for his size, has been well-spoken (despite the somewhat broken English still) and thoughtful the few times I’ve dealt with him, and carries the weight of an entire country’s basketball-crazy fan-base on his shoulders. Perhaps Yi Jianlian will share that in a few years, but for now, it’s all Yao’s. So I’m disappointed to hear that Yao is done for the season with a stress fracture in his foot. But I also feel vindicated after once again passing on my opportunities to draft Yao in fantasy leagues.

I’m always tempted to grab Yao early in 8-cat leagues because of his fabulous percentages – 52 percent career shooter, 82.6 percent from the line – and because I simply like having guys on my team who I can pull for. But the only time in Yao’s career I’ve had him on one of my fantasy teams was the 2003-04 season – his second and final 82-game campaign since entering the league.

Houston cut back Yao’s minutes a bit the next season and got 80 games out of him, but realized he was better than the 18 points, eight rebounds per game that he was putting up was far below his potential. And they were right.

But at 7-foot-6 inches, no matter how good of an athlete Yao is, he can’t play much more than 30 minutes per night and stay healthy. He’s proven it the last three seasons. In the 2005-06 season Yao needed toe surgery to deal with osteomyelitis and missed a total of 25 games. He averaged a then career-high 34:12 per contest that season.

Houston maintained Yao’s minutes the 2006-07 season and was rewarded with more of the same. The center suffered a fractured right tibia in December and ultimately missed 34 contests as a result.

Now Yao is 55 games into the season and the Rockets have a 12-game winning streak under their belts. Yao averaged more than 37 minutes per night in those 55 games, setting a new career high by three minutes per game. There’s no doubt that fantasy owners with Yao at center have been at least somewhat successful this season in part due to the 22 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and two blocks per game Yao has supplied. No one in the game can duplicate those numbers with the percentages he shoots. So once again, his fantasy owners will likely finish the season short of a championship.

My hope is that Houston figures out that no matter how great of an athlete Yao is, his body is simply too big to play much more than 32 or 33 minutes per night. Is it tough to leave him on the bench for 15 minutes per game, especially with your team still fighting for a playoff berth? Absolutely. But guess what? The Rockets aren’t getting to the playoffs with Dikembe Mutombo patrolling the paint.

Will Houston figure it out? It’s tough to say. I certainly wouldn’t bank on it. And I also wouldn’t select Yao in the first two rounds of a draft. If for some reason I did wind up with him you can bet I’ll be sending out trade offers before the calendar hits 2009 because I don’t want to be left holding the bag when Yao checks out early again. Perhaps he’ll do the same thing Marcus Camby did – shake off years of injury troubles to put up a couple ridiculous seasons – but fantasy owners reaping the benefits from Camby are doing so because they took him in the middle rounds. Yao’ numbers certainly are tempting enough that someone will take him in the first couple of rounds. But the best-case scenario there is that Yao reaches expectations, unlike Camby’s situation where he easily surpassed the expectations based on his draft position. Yao is too much risk compared to the reward as far as I’m concerned.

For once, though, I hope I’m proved wrong.

Just Kidd-ing?

Well, turns out it’s not a done deal after all. Jason Kidd remains a Net for the moment thanks to Devean George invoking his right to block a trade via a little known rule that allows players on a one-year contract, but who spent the previous season with the same team and are then eligible for Early Bird free-agent rights at the end of the contract, can’t be traded without their approval.

It sounds like this trade won’t be held up for long, but there is a possibility that George sticks to his guns. We’ve got a week until the trade deadline gets here, so something will happen soon.

Anyway, did anyone see Steve Novak drop the Kings like they were hot last night? Clutch.

No Kidd-ing

You certainly can’t accuse NBA general managers of being lazy – not after watching what’s happened around the league the last three weeks. First we had the Pau Gasol thing, then Shaquille O’Neal followed scores of other old people to Phoenix. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban certainly wasn’t about to let all of this go without making a move after a historic NBA Finals collapse two years ago and a historic first-round exit as the No. 1 seed last season. So by the time we come out of the All-Star break, much of Dallas’ roster from this week will be wearing those ugly Nets uniforms, while Jason Kidd and Antoine Wright (who is supposed to be dealt for a second-rounder in a separate deal) will be with the Mavs. First, let’s discuss the Dallas end of this.

Kidd is obviously a fantasy stud and has been for several years, but has been in a steady decline as the Nets have fallen from the elite teams in the East. This year he’s struggled even more, shooting the worst percentage of his career while seeing his scoring average drop for the fifth straight season. Some of this can be attributed to the miles he’s got on those legs, but don’t underestimate what the boost of playing for a contender can do for him. Kidd has privately wanted out of New Jersey all season, and made that desire more vocal when the calendar turned to 2008. Dallas was the destination he hoped for all along, so he now returns to the team that drafted him out of Cal and the squad that just a year ago had the best record in the league. He brings with him the mental toughness that comes from more than his fair-share of playoff and domestic dispute experience – which may have been the main reason for the Mavericks’ year-end demise the last two seasons.

Kidd’s addition makes everyone still on the roster better – Erick Dampier should get a few more dunks per game and more playing time with DeSagana Diop now gone. Dirk Nowitzki gets plenty of weight lifted from his shoulders now that he isn’t the only star on his Lone Star squad. Josh Howard maintains his role with the promise of more open shots and perhaps even more playing time with Jerry Stackhouse now gone. And Jason Terry is the only other reliable offensive option at either guard position, so he should be on the floor with Kidd plenty.

As for the Nets, may God have mercy on their souls. This team has headed south in a hurry and is going to get worse before it gets better. Sure, they now have a young corps of Devin Harris, Josh Boone, Nenad Krstic and Sean Williams – and Richard Jefferson is still a spry 27. But they intend to buy out the contract of Stackhouse, and Diop, Devean George and Maurice Ager are throw-ins with two being attractive for their expiring contracts – not their basketball talent. I don’t expect Diop or George to find much playing time because they won’t be with the squad next year and coach Lawrence Frank has young players who need to develop on-court chemistry. Ager could see more time than he did in Dallas, but not enough to be fantasy worthy. Jefferson and Vince Carter are must starts, but Carter may not even be in a New Jersey jersey come next week. More on that in a minute.

The Harris, Darrell Armstrong and Marcus Williams triumvirate is quite vomit inducing, with only Harris worth anything for fantasy owners when he’s completely healthy. I don’t expect him to be as productive as he could be with Dallas, but I don’t expect much of a decline, either. Carter and Jefferson will probably do the same damage in terms of scoring, but expect a drop in field goal percentage now that Kidd isn’t there setting them up. But Carter is considered trade bait as well now that J-Kidd is gone, and it appears that a deal with Indiana is imminent assuming that Jermaine O’Neal can prove he’s 70 percent healthy by the end of next week. Or Not. Now this potential move has me absolutely dumbfounded. I do understand the financial ramifications of said deal – Carter is on the books for four more years at $66.5 million, while O’Neal has just two more years left on his deal at $44.3 million. If New Jersey was looking at this move with a buyout for O’Neal in mind, then it might make more sense to me. But the fact that they are waiting to find out more about his health tells me that he is going to be brought on board to play – and play immediately. The situation for O’Neal isn’t much different in Indiana than it would be in New Jersey – a crappy team with not much promise for the coming seasons. But if he played for the Nets, he’d be keeping Williams, Boone and Krstic from maximizing their playing time, while leaving only Jefferson as a serious non-post scoring option.

I’m digressing a bit now since that move has yet to happen, but I’m sure I’ll jump on it again if/when that move becomes official. For now I think I’ll just sit back and admire what is an absolutely stacked Western Conference and salivate at the thought of the Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs, Hornets, Jazz, Nuggets, and either Warriors or Rockets trading blows throughout the playoffs. This is going to be fun…

Yank’d Out of the Rotation

Before I was fired from laid off by Fanball along with most of my co-writers, we put together a fantasy baseball magazine with several solid feature articles in it. I would personally recommend the “Busts” story because it was written by yours truly, but it appears as though the New York Yankees read Ted Carlson’s “Warning Flags” story. While it is certainly not an exact science, pitchers who increased their workload by 50 or more innings from one year to a next generally struggle to stay healthy and consistent the next season. So perhaps New York is looking towards 2009 in its decision to bring Joba Chamerlain out of the bullpen as Mariano Rivera’s setup guy through the beginning of June before sending him down to the minors to build up arm strength in hopes of having him join the rotation in early July at the latest. This is all in hopes of limiting the 22-year old Chamberlain to 140 innings this season after he pitched 112 1/3 innings last year. I don’t mind the logic, but it’s certainly more than a bit flawed.

First of all, the Yankees are planning on doing this assuming that Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can all stay healthy the first three months of the season. They are also assuming that Alan Horne, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez or Ross Ohlendorf emerges as a suitable replacement for Chamberlain in that time, because LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth certainly can’t be trusted. Then they are assuming that by late June or early July, one of their starters will get hurt or need to be demoted to the bullpen or the minors. Now I’m not suggesting that all of these things can’t happen, but hoping for the timing to work out on all of them is like expecting Ed McMahon to show up at your door with one of those really big checks. Sure, it’s possible, but you might as well wait to get hit by lightning as well.

Here’s the thing – Hughes is actually younger than Chamberlain and threw fewer innings due to injury last year. Kennedy is only a year older than Chamberlain. Now I agree that Chamberlain will be the most effective of the three as a setup guy, but basically the Yankees are hanging out Hughes and Kennedy to dry via their own logic (although Kennedy did top 165 innings last year in all of his stops). But to be honest, I don’t know if much of that matters, because I have a feeling this plan is going to be thrown all out of whack within the first month of the season somehow. I’m sure there is some sort of connection with Chaos Theory here, but I’m too stupid to know what it is.

So when it comes to fantasy draft day, Joba turns into quite the wild card. In keeper leagues his value doesn’t take much of a hit at all, so don’t skip over him just because you’ll be without his services as a starter for 2-3 months this season. But for those folks who are drafting for this year only, Chamberlain may not even be draftable depending on your league and bench size. For one, most teams won’t be starting middle relievers for any reason – and the only ones deserving of a bench spot are those who are likely to take over the role because of injury or ineffectiveness (like Matt Capps in Pittsburgh last season). Then keep in mind that some leagues don’t even let you hang onto players who aren’t in the majors, so when Joba gets sent down to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre you may have to dump him. And even if you don’t have to dump him, you still have a guy you can’t use on your bench for three months! Then, if he makes it through all of that, you are assuming that he’ll be just as effective as a starter in the majors as he was in the minors. It’s certainly possible, but there are just way too many issues with this to make him a trustworthy fantasy pickup.

The only logic I see for taking him on draft day would be assuming that New York’s rotation can’t go on as is for even the first six weeks of the season. It is also assuming that the Yankees would choose to deviate from their plan and use Chamberlain immediately in that role instead of someone like Kei Igawa or Chase Wright. Then you’re assuming that Chamberlain will be an effective starter immediately in his first try at the big league level. I can listen to the argument if you’re willing to use it, but it certainly won’t be coming out of my mouth. I think I’ll go ahead and wait on drafting him until next year.

Mr. Jones and You

You know what will be great this summer? Seeing the words “Adam Jones” in print without the words “arrested” or “busted” or “strip club” later in the sentence. While it’s true that it may have been the case regardless if the baseball version of Adam Jones was traded to the Orioles or not, it simply helps that the young outfielder is now in a position to be not only an everyday starter, but a key component to the offense. There’s also that whole East Coast bias thing and the fact that most his games won’t start after half of the country is done getting ready for bed.

Yes, after much delay, Jones and four other Mariners prospects are en route to Baltimore for Erik Bedard, who will give Seattle a chance to compete with Angels this season. But there has been enough talk about Bedard in this deal, so let’s take a look at the Orioles side of the coin. With Corey Patterson out of the picture as a free agent, Baltimore has the center field job for him on a silver platter. I’m curious to see how he handles this, because he was handed nothing in his first two stints with the Mariners and struggled without an everyday role:

OF Adam Jones, Orioles (Last Two Years)

Year	G	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	32	74	.216	6	1	8	3	.237	.311	.548
2007	41	65	.246	16	2	4	2	.300	.400	.700

But check out what he did in the Pacific Coast League with Tacoma the last two seasons, noting the improvements from 2006 to 2007:

OF Adam Jones, Orioles (Last Two Years)

Year	G	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	96	380	.287	69	16	62	13	.345	.484	.829
2007	101	420	.314	75	25	84	8	.382	.586	.968

The guy has considerable power and managed to hit .314 despite striking out 106 times in 420 at-bats at Class AAA in 2007. And that OPS of his was fairly impressive as well. Are the high strikeout and low walk numbers concerning? Certainly. But we’re talking about a 22-year old here. Although I can’t say I think he’ll flip the switch this season, I’m confident that Jones will get things moving in the right direction over the next few years. So what am I expecting this season?

Well, he’s seen Major League pitching, but probably not enough of it for his batting average to climb much higher than the .275 to .280 range despite the fact he’s hit at least .287 in the minors since 2004. He won’t be much help in steals with fewer than a dozen or so, but at least it’s something. The power department is where fantasy owners would hope to get the most use out of Jones this year, but I wouldn’t fly off the handle here. The two guys I’ve heard him compared to the most since moving from shortstop to outfield in 2005 are Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter – players who found their way into the lineup because of their defense with their power coming along later. Jones has the athleticism to be a great defensive center fielder and the swing to perhaps eventually pass the ceilings of those two guys in homers – not to mention batting average – but for 2008 anything more than 20 should be considered gravy. His RBI totals should be decent as well with assuming he can bat sixth or seventh instead of behind guys like Kevin Millar and Luke Scott, who aren’t as adept at getting on base as some of Baltimore’s other offensive offerings. His run total will probably fall in the 60-70 range. When the dust settles, Jones probably ends up being a top-50 fantasy outfielder. So if you’re in a 10-team combo league with a shallow bench, he may not be worth the risk on draft day. But 12-team leagues or deep 10-teamers probably end up seeing Jones come off the board towards the end of the proceedings. Keeper leaguers should be a bit more aware, however. Jones is the type of guy who could get that batting average up sooner rather than later, so if you can swipe him later on and hang onto him for a couple of years, you’ll probably be handsomely rewarded down the line.

The Matrix Removed

Note to Shawn Marion owners: don’t get too excited just yet.

Yes, the Matrix is en route to Miami after being traded along with Marcus Banks for “The Big Saguaro,” meaning he will no longer be playing third fiddle in Phoenix to Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. Marion owners seem to be excited about this, with the thinking being that Marion’s digits will explode once in South Beach. Don’t be so sure. Why is second fiddle for a crap team better than third fiddle for a great one?

While I give Nash a ton of credit for Marion’s development, it’s fair to point out that he was already a stat monster when Nash arrived. In the 2003-04 campaign, Marion averaged 19 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per contest. That also happened to be the season that Mike D’Antoni arrived in December to replace Frank Johnson. With D’Antoni’s up-tempo, European style of play, and Nash running the show, Marion was let loose to use his athleticism. Phoenix scored points and was scored on, leading to more opportunities on the glass and the scoreboard. After three straight seasons of a falling shooting percentage, it jumped back up to 47.6 percent. Since then, with Nash setting him up for open looks, Marion hasn’t been below 52 percent. But let’s not start proclaiming that his solid shooting is a product of that awful looking jumper he’s got.

Look at it this way – right now he’s Phoenix’s fourth-best scorer while taking the third-most shots per game on the team. This is for a Suns club that is outscored on a nightly basis only by the Golden State Warriors. Now look at Miami. Marion will certainly not displace Dwyane Wade as the primary option, so look for him to be the No. 2 shooter (assuming that Ricky Davis doesn’t start firing away with Shaq gone) on the club. But he’ll be the second option for a team that is last in the NBA in scoring – putting up 17 fewer points per game.

And Shawn won’t be getting the alley-oops and easy buckets the way he was in Phoenix, either. Do you really think that Jason Williams and Banks will be looking for Marion in the corner when they could put up circus shots or chuck three-pointers themselves? Not likely. Marion is going to have to work harder for his points, meaning his shooting percentage will probably dip back to the 45 percent range – not awful, mind you, but not near what he was doing in Phoenix.

Yes, the intangibles should still be there, assuming Miami’s losing ways don’t rub off on him immediately. The rebounding, blocks, steals; don’t expect a drop-off there. But don’t expect a big increase – if at all – in points, and don’t be surprised when he’s no longer carrying your club’s shooting percentage on his back.

As for the rest of the pieces to this puzzle, Banks should see an increase in minutes and consistent production, but likely not to the extent that he’s contributing in deep fantasy leagues. Shaq? Well, this move should certainly re-energize him – but unless it comes with a working hip, his numbers probably won’t increase significantly, if at all. Boris Diaw actually turns into the big winner here, because there is no way that Shaq will be able to run with the Suns more than 20-25 minutes per night. Considering Marion was playing more than 36 minutes per game, Diaw should jump up into the 32 mpg range and become a more consistent fantasy contributor. On the Miami side, Mark Blount is actually a serviceable option the rest of the season. Granted, he’s the worst 7-foot rebounder in the history of life, but he does know how to score points – and when you have center eligibility and can score, there is always room for you on fantasy teams.

Magsh says “Welcome to KOBD Sports!”

 What’s up people?!?

You may know me from such blogs as Punting Baxter or perhaps formerly from websites such as Fanball or KFAN. But KOBD Sports is the new fantasy sports blog home of Anthony Maggio, where all of my fantasy sports related posts on Punting Baxter will wind up. But it won’t just be me on here, because that would be stupid considering I have another blog. Why do double the work?

Glad you asked. This blog will feature other former writers from Fanball and other fantasy sports websites who are no longer under the site’s employ. It’s all of the veteran fantasy sports insight you used to get under a corporate umbrella, now coming to you live and uncut. For a full bio of yours truly, check out the “About Magsh” page on Punting Baxter. For all of the fantasy football, baseball, and perhaps even basketball and hockey info you could want, stay tuned to KOBD, your new home for fantasy sports analysis.