You are currently browsing poochreport's articles.
With the NFL Draft less than 24 hours away, it is time to take a look at the best-case scenarios for each of the running backs projected to go in the first-round. Keep in mind these are the best-case reasonable projections, so each player will go to a team close to where the established draft experts have him going in their mocks. Also, I’m not looking for the highest point a player could go. I don’t care if his best-case fantasy landing spot is the result of him falling a few spots; let his accountant worry about that.
Darren McFadden, Arkansas – New York Jets – The Jets feature two things that make them a prime spot for McFadden, an improving offensive line and Thomas Jones. The latter is coming off a season which saw him score only one rushing touchdown and average 3.6 yards per carry. Jones would likely split carries with Darren if he ends up in Gotham City, but that beats landing in St. Louis or Kansas City and having to share time with Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson. Ending up in Oakland might result in more carries for McFadden, but I wouldn’t wish having to run behind that offensive line on even my worst enemy.
Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois– Detroit Lions – Mendenhall would get a chance to start right away in Motown if he could beat out Tatum Bell, which wouldn’t be too difficult a task. And even if Tatum manages to hold onto the starting job in training camp, it would only be a matter of weeks until Bell cracks. The Lions don’t have much of an offensive line, but landing in Detroit would give Rashard a chance at 200 carries as a rookie.
Jonathan Stewart, Oregon– Arizona Cardinals – The end of the Edgerrin James era is coming in Arizona, and the team would be very wise to select a running back to join their stable of young offensive talent. Waiting until the second round to pick up a back may be their best move, but grabbing Stewart here would be the best move for his fantasy value, especially long-term. His rookie year would be spent as Edge’s caddy, but he could be an explosive change-of-pace option in 2008 and would be the heir apparent in an offense that could yield lots of points over the next few seasons.
Felix Jones, Arkansas– Dallas Cowboys – There is no point in playing the “best case” game here because Jerry Jones is going to take Felix because they share both a last name and alma matter. This isn’t a bad thing, however, because Jones will see plenty of touches as the new Julius Jones in Dallas’ two-back offense. Felix should also be heavily involved in the passing game, which gives him a shot at fantasy relevance as a rookie even if he never cracks the starting lineup.
Believe it or not, I don’t have any say in where Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan lands in the draft. Shocking, isn’t it? But considering his talent and the needs of the teams in the top 10, it seems pretty clear to me that Ryan won’t make it past the Ravens with eighth selection. And if this fantasy owner has his druthers, that is exactly where he will end up. Let me explain.
First off, the Patriots, Rams, and Raiders have been disqualified from this discussion because they are already set at quarterback. I’m also dismissing the Chiefs because it appears they are comfortable going forward with the dynamic duo of Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard atop the depth chart. And the Jets are out because they appear dead set on having Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington battle in training camp, a decision which will likely allow them to select near the top of next year’s draft board as well.
Of the teams remaining in the top eight, Baltimore is the lesser of the evils because it is the only franchise which features both a proven running back and a 100-catch receiver already in place. Atlanta is a close second on this list because of the potential of players like Michael Tuner, Roddy White and even the seemingly forgotten Jerious Norwood; however, there are too many questions surrounding their offensive line and tight end position for me to declare them the optimal landing spot for any rookie quarterback. The Dolphins are in even worse shape, as Ronnie Brown still has to prove he’ll be healthy enough to be a factor in 2008, and unless Ted Ginn develops at a rapid pace, there is no receiver on the team that will strike fear in the heart of a major college team’s secondary.
Baltimore isn’t Ryan’s best destination just because the other options are atrocious, though. With Willis McGahee and his 1,200 rushing yards in the backfield to provide balance, Matt wouldn’t be counted on to immediately carry the offense on his broad, catholic-school educated shoulders. He will also be aided by the presence of veteran wideout Derrick Mason, who is not much of a fantasy option outside of PPR leagues but could be a big help to a rookie quarterback. Baltimore also has one of the top pass-catching tight ends (when healthy) in Todd Heap, which provides a nice security blanket for a young signal caller. The Ravens receiving corps also includes a couple of intriguing youngsters in Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams who could one day replace Mason atop the depth chart and grow up with Ryan if all goes according to plan.
Of course, even if Ryan ends up with the Ravens it will be a couple of years before fantasy owners can reasonable expect consistently solid numbers from him. But of the teams picking at the top of the draft, Baltimore offers the best chance of preventing him from having to endure a short learning curve.
Late last week, there was a report on ESPN that the Panthers were looking to trade DeShaun Foster. As a man who has loved fellow Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams ever since he was in college, I can only say, “What took you guys so long?”
Now don’t get me wrong, I think Foster is a solid back, but Carolina has been making a big mistake by not letting Williams, who left school with the NCAA record for career 100-yard rushing games (34) and 7,573 all-purpose yards. Heck, DeAngelo doesn’t need me to tell you about him, he has created his own website to do that. I will use this handy chart to help illustrate how good he has been in Carolina Blue.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
| RUSHING | RECEIVING |
| Year | G | Rush | Yds | Yds/G | YPC | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | |
| 2006 | 13 | 121 | 501 | 38.5 | 4.1 | 1 | 33 | 313 | 1 | |
| 2007 | 16 | 144 | 717 | 44.8 | 5.0 | 4 | 23 | 175 | 1 |
Need visual evidence of his elusiveness?
Assuming the Panthers can find a trade partner and don’t end up pairing DeAngelo with another back to split the load, Williams should get about 275 carries in 2008. Even his per-carry average falls half a yard from last season to 4.5 a carry, he will end up with over 1,200 rushing yards, and that doesn’t even count his receiving yardage. Heck, even if he drops to 4.0 yards per carry, he will still end up with over 1,000 yards.
As much as I love DeAngelo (and any long-time reader of Fantasy Football Weekly knows my love for him is endless), I still have too many concerns about the Panthers to include him in my running back top-10 if Foster is dealt. First off, he w is yet to prove he can handle the load of being a featured back for an entire season. Secondly, the interior of their line is very suspect. While their tackle situation is in good shape with Travelle Wharton and Jordan Gross (assuming he stays), guard Mike Wahle has been a titanic disappointment andcenter Justin Hartwig can’t stay healthy. Also, several serious questions remain about the passing game, not the least of which is, who will quarterback the Panthers in 2008? Without a reliable passing game to distract defenses, Williams’ ability to consistently post excellent yardage numbers will be limited, as will his chances to score touchdowns. Of course, Carolina can address some, if not all, of those concerns with an aggressive offseason. If they accomplish that and ship out Foster, Williams suddenly emerges as one of next season’s most popular sleepers, and you can bet I’ll be leading the charge.
Sorry I have been so absent lately. I decided to join the Dharma Initiative , but things got a little dicey when a plane crashed on our island and now I have returned.
Previously on this blog, I promised to explore the question of if aces consistently face other aces during a season. The idea for this test hit me while I was listening to a recent CBS Sportsline podcast where the guys insinuated that fantasy owners should care that a pitcher is the No. 1 hurler on his team because it would result in more matchups against aces from other squads. After watching baseball for about 20 years, I’ve noticed a thing or two, and my keen intuition has never picked up a noticeable trend of aces consistently facing other aces, at least not any more frequently than they face pitchers in other slots in the rotation.
Test: I chose to examine a sample size of 10 teams, which is one-third of the league. To ensure it was random I simply went down the list of teams alphabetically until I got five teams from each league. In this experiment, an “ace” is defined as the team’s Opening Day pitcher because he is the man on the top of the rotation at the start of the season.
While on many teams these pitchers will not end the year with the best statistics, the purpose of this test was not to see how often a team’s best statistical starter faced off with another team’s because that is not helpful to fantasy owners in the preseason as we prep for drafts. Obviously, it is impossible to know for certain who every team’s top pitcher in 2008 will be before the year begins. Instead, this experiment was to see how often a pitcher slotted at the top of his team’s rotation went up against another hurler in that same position.
Hypothesis: Aces will face other aces roughly 20 percent of the time because they have an equal opportunity to pitch against any of the five members of the opposing team’s rotation.
Data:
| Team | Player | Starts | vs. Ace | Percent |
| ARI | Brandon Webb | 34 | 5 | 14.7 |
| ATL | John Smoltz | 32 | 8 | 25 |
| BAL | Erik Bedard | 28 | 7 | 25 |
| BOS | Curt Schiling | 24 | 2 | 8.3 |
| CWS | Jose Contreas | 32 | 3 | 9.4 |
| CHC | Carlos Zambrano | 34 | 6 | 17.6 |
| CIN | Aaron Harang | 34 | 10 | 29.4 |
| CLE | C.C. Sabathia | 34 | 6 | 17.6 |
| COL | Aaron Cook | 24 | 7 | 29.2 |
| DET | Jeremy Bonderman | 28 | 6 | 21.4 |
| TOTAL | 304 | 60 | 19.7 |
Conclusion: Aces faced off with each other 19.7 percent of all starts, almost exactly one-fifth of the time. This confirms my hypothesis and makes sense since, statistically, every time they take the hill they have a one-in-five chance of battling the opposing team’s top starter. This is important to fantasy baseball players to know as we prepare for upcoming drafts because it proves that there is no reason to downgrade any starter because of his location in his team’s rotation. So while there are a variety of reasons (new ballpark, run support, ect…) to adjust your rankings for Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, and other hurlers who switched teams this winter, do not do so because he now occupies a different rotation slot than he did a year ago.
It looks like the Erik
Bedard trade is almost complete. And kudos to the Baltimore Sun for using a timely reference for the title of the story.
Once the deal is complete I will be back with a breakdown of the players involved and compare what Baltimore received for Bedard with the package the Twins got in return for Johan Santana. Is it possible the Orioles actually got a better deal?
Speaking of the Santana deal, Fanball’s Christian Peterson takes a stab at defending the Twins in a blog entry.
If you are looking for a very good mock fantasy baseball draft, check out the latest one
from Mock Draft Central. You should recognize the man who is drafting out of the No. 5 because he is Chris Bracke, whose blog 108 Stitches is linked on my blogroll. You can also check out MDC’s Top 30 Prospects, also done by Mr. Bracke.
CBS Sportsline has posted another fantasy baseball podcast. There is nothing groundbreaking in this edition (unless you are privy to their inside jokes perhaps), but they say one thing that caught my attention enough to conduct an experiment. Do No. 1 pitchers really face other team’s aces on a consistent enough basis that it should worry fantasy owners? Check back to the Pooch Report on Thursday for my conclusion using mounds of data from the 2007 season.
When they construct a Hall of Shame for terrible announcers, there will be a wing dedicated to Emmitt Smith’s rookie season.
Scott Wright’s NFL Draft Countdown has a mock draft that was posted Friday and it looks like it takes all the right things into account. We’ll be all over the NFL Draft here like stink on a hobo.
